Updated Stanley Cup playoff 2023 chances, projections and probabilities (2024)

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(Photo: Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)

On our NHL projections and probabilities page, you will find each team’s probability of advancing through the playoffs and winning the Stanley Cup.

The projections are based on 50,000 simulations of the remainder of the playoffs, which factors in each team’s projected strength, current health, and their playoff path. Each team’s projected strength is based on the projected value of the players on its roster based on their Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating.

Read more here.

Count out the veteran, savvy Lightning at your own peril.

“I will never question the guys in that room,” Lightning head coach Jon Cooper said after the Game 1 victory. “As the coach, you always want the best, but deep down inside you know there’s a whole bunch of gamers in that room, and this night we knew they would come out to play.”

To a man, from the coach to the players, everyone was quick Tuesday night to reiterate that it’s just one game — that a year ago they were the ones beaten 5-0 in Game 1 by the Leafs, and we all remember how that series ended. Nobody in that Lightning dressing room is getting carried away.

But don’t fool yourself. This is a proud team that was well aware of the external doubts about it entering this playoff series. That the Lightning had too many miles on them. That they were looking tired. That their second-half slump went too long just to flip on the switch come playoff time.

“We have a lot of leaders in here kind of block out the noise,” Lightning forward Ross Colton said after Game 1. “We know the team we have in here. It wasn’t the best stretch there the second half of the season. But no excuses in here.

“The leadership in the room kept us even keel the whole time.”

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NEWARK, N.J. — The Rangers took the risk out of their game to open this first-round series. They didn’t have the puck more than the Devils and they gave up some good scoring chances, but reducing risk was a key component of Gerard Gallant’s game plan. That meant no long east-west passes. No hope plays. Chip it out under duress, chip it in when needed and get to work on the forecheck.

The jittery Devils certainly helped, but this 5-1 victory was a forceful performance by the Rangers without much fanfare. An ideal start to the postseason in a game that was barely ever in doubt.

“That’s what happens in playoffs, you dig deep,” said Barclay Goodrow, who didn’t register a point but played the ultimate playoff game on Tuesday: Three of the team’s 23 blocked shots, a 7-4 record in the faceoff circle, a few scrums started and no turnovers. “They’re a highly skilled team that can create a lot if you let them. Did a pretty good executing our game plan.”

Read more here.

Bruins' lines at Wednesday's morning skate ahead of Game 2:

Marchand-Zacha-DeBrusk

Bertuzzi-Krejci-Pastrnak

Hall-Coyle-Frederic

Foligno-Nosek-Hathaway

Greer-Lauko

Orlov-McAvoy

Lindholm-Carlo

Forbort-Clifton

Grzelcyk-Zboril

Ullmark

Swayman

TORONTO — Michael Bunting immediately threw his left hand out in surprise, before his eyes grew wide as they so often do when a penalty is called against him.

Across the Scotiabank Arena, and likely in the space that houses the Maple Leafs management group during games, more than a few sets of eyes grew even wider, wondering how Bunting could have gotten himself into the mess he had.

The list of “How?” questions is lengthy: How could Bunting have so carelessly gotten his elbow up against Lightning defenceman Erik Cernak in a crucial playoff game? How could he take such a penalty after the constant discourse surrounding him and his unnecessary penalties throughout the season? How could he make this decision given a mid-season demotion down the lineup and his changing reputation throughout the league from last season?

And given his recent efforts to stay on the right side of the law with a return to the Leafs’ top line, how is a possible suspension going to impact the Leafs throughout the rest of this series against the Lightning? The NHL Department of Player Safety announced early Wednesday that Bunting would have a hearing Wednesday for “an Illegal Check to the Head/Interference.”

Maybe Bunting throwing his hand out was an effort to plead his case: he was simply trying to get body positioning on Cernak.

“In terms of the call, I don’t have a whole lot of thoughts on that. (Bunting), to me, is trying to win the line to try and set himself up for a race to win the puck. It got away on him. (Cernak) wasn’t expecting it. I’m sure (Bunting) was expecting a battle in that situation,” Leafs head coach Sheldon Keefe said postgame.

Read more here.

(Photo: Claus Andersen / Getty Images)

The Bruins expect to play into June. Round 1 should be a short series against the overmatched Panthers. Patrice Bergeron, out for Game 1 because of injury and illness, is questionable for Game 2. This is no time to push Linus Ullmark into the red if he’s slightly compromised.

Not when there’s a No. 2 goalie like Jeremy Swayman primed to take his Game 2 turn.

Ullmark gives the Bruins the best chance to win. That was the case in the regular season, when the 29-year-old led the league in the traditional goaltending metrics of wins (40), goals-against average (1.89) and save percentage (.938). Heck, even goals (one). You cannot argue against such numbers.

You also cannot argue that Swayman’s performance played a part in Ullmark’s numbers. It is easier for a goalie like Ullmark to be at his best when he does not have to endure the physical and mental stress of being the workhorse. Rest matters. So does routine.

It makes little sense, then, to deviate from a template that produced no-complaints goaltending for 82 games.

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Stop me if you’ve heard this one before.

It’s the playoffs, the Toronto Maple Leafs didn’t show up on time, they briefly got going with an offensive outburst, and then came the shaky calls and the stupid penalties and the non-existent big save when it was needed most. Now they’re embarrassed, in disarray and looking over their shoulders at ghosts.

Yeah, I’ll stop. You’ve heard it all. It’s the same old story.

The difference here is the timing. For all of the Leafs’ recent history of playoff misery, they’ve generally saved their worst for last. They look OK over the first few games, sometimes a lot better than OK, but then it all heads downhill as the series goes on. This year, they didn’t waste any time.

Depending on your perspective, that could be a very bad sign. It could also be a sign that the script has already flipped. This team had better hope so.

If they needed a wake-up call, they got one on Tuesday night. It’s hard to figure how they possibly could have needed one, given that they’ve waited a year to get back to the only hockey that matters. They’ve known they’d get a rematch with the Lightning for months. They’ve known they’d have home ice for weeks. And they all know what’s at stake, for the players and the coaches and the entire organization. This time, for once, at least you knew that they’d be ready to go. Only then the puck dropped, and they absolutely weren’t.

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(Photo: Claus Andersen / Getty Images)

There’s no letter grade below an F. If there were, the Toronto Maple Leafs would’ve earned it on Tuesday night.

How else are you supposed to assess a loss like that?

It was Game 1 on home ice against an opponent the Leafs haven’t been able to solve when it matters most. After six-straight early postseason exits, the stakes have never been higher for this core.

There are jobs on the line, in the front office and the coaching staff. The future of the core is at stake, too. We’re talking about major changes if they don’t see results.

And in Game 1, it took 78 seconds for the Tampa Bay Lightning to score. It was 3-0 by the end of the first period. And 7-3 at the final buzzer.

Let’s get into the grades, there won’t be many good ones.

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NEWARK, N.J. — Jack Hughes had a two-handed death grip on the water bottle he held at his waist, twisting the life out of it as he clung to the usual clichés and platitudes that typically emanate from an NHL dressing room, particularly before a playoff series, when the last thing you want to do is piss anybody off.

The throng around him was a lot larger than usual, and Hughes was perhaps a little quieter than usual. Just a little fidgety, with that poor water bottle bearing the brunt of it. Of course, locker room scrums are always a little awkward and off-putting, in this case, a bunch of randos from the other side of the river shoving their recorders and cameras in your face. So maybe it was just that. But eight hours before his first Stanley Cup playoff game, a moment he had been waiting for nearly his entire life, Hughes looked, well, nervous.

Hey, wouldn’t you be? So what if you’re one of the most talented hockey players on the planet. This stuff is tense, man, as every one of those randos from the other side of the river kept pointing out.

“Of course, you’ll be nervous,” Hughes said. “Excited. It’s a huge moment.”

A moment that the Devils simply weren’t ready for.

Read more here.

(Photo: Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)

Igor Shesterkin saved 1.38 goals above expected when accounting for his workload, per Evolving-Hockey. It’s an early extension of his play last postseason, when he earned a GSAx of 23.2, with 17 quality starts out of 20 games.

On the other end of the ice, Vitek Vanecek conceded 1.76 goals more than expected. It’s just his fourth appearance in the NHL postseason, and he’s been below-average in each outing. This has been Vanecek’s best season yet, so his past record may not matter if he can continue building on his regular season. That said, his expanded workload did appear to weigh on him down the stretch, making this something to watch moving forward.

(Photo: Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)

The Tampa Bay Lightning routed the Toronto Maple Leafs 7-3 on the road Tuesday to take a 1-0 lead in their first-round playoff matchup. Here’s what you need to know:

• Tampa Bay’s Pierre-Edouard Bellemare opened the scoring just 1:18 into the game, putting in a rebound off a shot by Corey Perry. The Lightning made it 2-0 minutes later on a goal from Anthony Cirelli.
• Nikita Kucherov’s power-play goal four seconds before the first intermission put the Lightning up 3-0, but Toronto wouldn’t go away easily. Ryan O’Reilly and William Nylander both scored midway through the second to cut the Maple Leafs’ deficit to one before the Lightning responded with four straight goals.
• Tampa Bay earned the victory despite injuries to defensem*n Victor Hedman, Erik Cernak and forward Michael Eyssimont in the second period.
• Toronto’s Michael Bunting, who received a match penalty for his illegal check to the head on Cernak, will have a hearing with the NHL’s Department of Player Safety on Wednesday.

Read more here.

The New York Rangers rolled to a 5-1 win over the Devils at the Prudential Center on Tuesday to take a 1-0 series lead in their first-round playoff series. Here’s what you need to know:

• Chris Kreider led New York with two goals, both of which came on the power play. Adam Fox added a game-high 4 assists.
• Reigning Vezina Trophy winner Igor Shesterkin made 27 saves in the win, having a shutout snapped on a Jack Hughes penalty shot late in the third period.
• The Devils went 0-for-4 on the power play, while Vitek Vanecek allowed four goals on 23 shots.
• Game 2 is scheduled for Thursday at 7:30 p.m. ET in New Jersey.

Nikolaj Ehlers is not among the Jets dressed here at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, despite declaring himself "good to go" this weekend.

Winnipeg's lines without Ehlers:

Connor-Dubois-Scheifele

Niederreiter-Namestnikov-Wheeler

Barron-Lowry-Appleton

Gustafsson-Stenlund-Maenalanen

Morrissey-DeMelo

Dillon-Pionk

Samberg-Schmidt

Helleb

EDMONTON – Gabriel Vilardi is ready to be back in the Kings' roster mix.

The 23-year-old forward hasn’t played since March 26 because of an unspecified upper-body injury but he proclaimed himself fit to be available for their Game 2 against Edmonton on Wednesday. Injuries limited him to just 18 of his 63 games played this season after the All-Star break.

“It’s part of the game,” said Vilardi, who took part in an optional skate Tuesday. “You get injured and you try and recover as fast as you can. I got a lot of people in the organization that help me out. Pretty grateful for that. We’re all pretty lucky that we have a great team that help the guys when they do get hurt.”

If Vilardi dresses, the Kings get back another offensive weapon. He had a hot start with 10 goals in his first 15 games and finished with 23 goals. Before this year,

Vilardi totaled 18 goals and 37 points over 89 contests spread across three seasons.

“When he’s ready to play, he’ll find his way into the lineup for sure,” Kings coach Todd McLellan said. “The best thing that can happen is a player saying he’s ready but there’s also others that have to go through their protocol and sign off on it.”

The Kings are still without winger Kevin Fiala, who isn’t with the club as he continues to nurse a lower-body injury. Fiala has appeared in only three games since receiving a knee-on-knee hit by Colorado’s Andrew Cogliano on March 9.

Matthew Knies looked around the Leafs dressing room and shook his head. It wasn’t long after the Leafs had finished an optional practice on Saturday afternoon, and many of his teammates were already nowhere to be seen. The highly-touted NHL rookie questioned a few Leafs staff members as to how the room gets so vacant so soon. Quickly, Knies threw on a Leafs ball cap, one he is still working in to fit just right, and realized he should probably hit the road too: his new roommate was probably waiting for him in the parking lot, having finished practice about 20 minutes earlier: John Tavares.

Almost immediately after Knies signed with the Leafs on Sunday, Apr. 9, the 20-year-old received a flurry of text messages from Leafs stars, all offering up a spare room in their house for the highly-touted Leafs prospect to stay in for the duration of the playoffs. Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner texted Knies, but Tavares’ text came first. Knies happily jumped at the opportunity to live in Tavares’ basem*nt.

And for what could be a roller coaster ride for Knies, having Tavares to lean on could help him understand the new life he’s now a part of.

“It makes me feel way more like part of the family,” Knies said.

Read more here.

(Photo: Bruce Bennett / Getty)

The playoffs are here, and if your team made it then you know what to do. (Hyperventilate, vomit sporadically, hate your life.)

But what if your team didn’t make it? You have several options. You could sit back and watch as a neutral observer. You could pick a few rivals to spite-watch. You could check out completely until the draft lottery.

Or you could go the dreaded bandwagon route. It’s a controversial path, one that some hockey fans will swear is forbidden. But the truth is that it’s just more fun to watch the playoffs with a rooting interest, even if it’s a flimsy one that you won’t hesitate to abandon as soon as the final horn sounds on that fourth loss. Your team was bad this season, you endured it all, and now the games really matter and you deserve to have a quick fling, you know?

If so, you want to choose wisely. You want a team that’s good enough to win, but not so good that you look like a frontrunner. You want fun characters, good stories, an OGWAC or two, and ideally not too many players you’ll feel dirty for rooting for. I’m here to help. It’s time for my annual bandwagon-hopper’s guide to the 16 playoff teams.

Read more here

(Photo: Dustin Bradford / Getty Images)

Auston Matthews, John Tavares, Mitch Marner and William Nylander already rank among the greatest players in the century-long history of the Maple Leafs.

Matthews and Marner rank 2-3 all time in points per game among Leafs who’ve played at least 200 games, trailing only Doug Gilmour. Tavares isn’t far behind in 10th place. Nylander is lingering just inside the top 20.

Matthews holds the record for most goals (60) in a season by a Leaf as well as the fourth-most points (106). Marner has two of the 10 most productive seasons ever by a Leaf. Nylander joined Matthews this season as one of only 15 Leafs to bury 40 goals in a season.

Only seven players have scored more than the 47 Tavares managed in his first season with the team.

And yet, there’s no getting around the fact that their Leaf legacies, to this point, are almost entirely confined to the regular season. The big four stars of the Leafs have been good, but not good enough when it matters most.

More than ever before, that needs to change.

Read more here.